Time for another rationality quote!
Unless challenged to think otherwise, people quickly move from “Phew! Dodged a bullet on that one!” to “I’m a great bullet-dodger.”
Discussing the “Near-miss bias” which they define as a tendency to “take more risk after an event in which luck played a critical role in deciding the event’s [favorable] outcome.”
Top Dog: The Science of Winning and Losing by Po Bronson and Ashley Merryman, page 150.
This reminds me of the hasty generalization fallacy.
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