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What are the odds that Jesus rose or Moses parted the waves? Even with the best witnesses, vanishingly small

05 Dec

I claim no great originality for my argument. I’m borrowing from the great Scottish philosopher David Hume, particularly Section 10 of his magnificent Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding (1748). If there is any novelty in my presentation, it owes to the marriage of Hume’s ideas with a famous theorem in probability theory proposed by the Reverend Thomas Bayes in ‘An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances’ (1763). The technical details, fortunately, can be put to the side for our purposes.

Read more at Aeon.

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Posted by on December 5, 2014 in Bayes, rationality

 

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